kancollefandomcom-20200213-history
User blog:Homuhomu123/Further Study on the Factors Affecting Trigger Rates of Artillery Spotting
>> Due to LIMITED sample size and/or BAD experiment procedure, this article is considered obsolete. '' '''>> Click here to see the list of experiments performed by Homu Test. Intro to the Exp't This is my 2nd part of the ASTRE (Artillery Spotting Trigger Rate Estimate) project, in which 2 experiments, namely Exp't C & Exp't D, were done in total of 3 days. We will accumulate more data, and use those data to evaluate our previous hypothesis and/or come up with new ones. For convenience, we will now assume a fatigue (red face) modifier of -12% when calculating the estimates. . [ Exp't C ] [ Information About the Exp't ] '- Objective: '''To accumulate more data for further analysis. Also, we may evaluate the fatigue (red face) modifer on both CI & DA chance. '- Assumptions': Based on the page Artillery Spotting '- Terminology:' *"#ATK" = Total number of attacks" *"#DA/CI" = Number of double attacks or cut-ins. A double attack is only counted once. *"#DA/CI_HIT" = Number of DA/CI which inflicted non-scratch damage (>10% of the target's current HP). If both double attacks hit the target, they're only counted once. '- Test Ship & Equipment''' ' ' - Assume difference in seaplanes will NOT affect the trigger rate of CI. - Assume difference in artillery will not affect chances for CI or DA. - FuMO25 is an AA radar. - #22 Surface radar Kai-4 (+8 accuracy), same as #32 Surface radar. >>> Data shall be recorded only if test ships are in severe fatigue & above moderate damage (except Fuso). Fuso will always stay in a moderately damaged status. - Illustration on how data were collected. [ Exp't C ] - Completed in 1 Day (Total of 5h) - # Battles: 147 - Formation: LINE AHEAD - Fleet total LOS = ~381~ (+6.5% DA, +8.0% CI) - Non-S Results: 16 - Buckets used: 11 (1) - Companion CV(L): Taihou lv 91, Junyou lv 80 - Wildcard: Amatsukaze NOTE: *The # of sorties Fuso participated in a moderately damaged status: 1st -> 147th, consists 100% of all the sorties *ALWAYS ABOVE MODERATE DAMAGE FOR TEST SHIPS (EXCEPT FUSO), ABOVE RED FOR THE OTHERS. *The action of switching companion CVL and/or wildcard should be prohibited in future exp'ts. Findings from Exp't C - (ASTRE) *'Fatigue doesn't seem to penalize CI chance.' *'''''The existence of fagitue penalty &/ or minor damage penalty: ~9% DA chance, Otherwise the estimates are always getting too far from actual results. *Both CI & DA boost shelling accuracy considerably, if compared with single attacks (VERY small sample size) *Comparing the estimate to her actual DA rate from the moderately damaged Fuso, it seems being 中破 doesn't really affect DA chance. (similar effect as minor damage??)) *Giving the same accuracy bonus from equipments, Chikuma's DA Accuracy is much lower than Fuso's. This is consistent with our previous observation that BBV Fuso with 35.6cm gave significantly higher DA accuracy than CAs. *Under severe fatigue, CI has almost the same accuracy as DA. [ Exp't D ] [ Information About the Exp't ] '- Objectives:' #Evaluate effects on DA chance, by remodelling CA to CAV. #Preliminary evaluation of radar modifier on CI chance. (Surface vs. AA radar) #Calibrate the fatigue (red face) modifer. #Determine the effects of level difference on DA chance. '- Assumptions': #Based on the page Artillery Spotting #Since we don't know anything about fatigue penalty on CI chance, assume it does NOT affect CI chance, for now. '- Terminology:' *"#ATK" = Total number of attacks" *"#DA/CI" = Number of double attacks or cut-ins. A double attack is only counted once. *"#DA/CI_HIT" = Number of DA/CI which inflicted non-scratch damage (>10% of the target's current HP). If both double attacks hit the target, they're only counted once. '- Test Ship & Equipment:' - Please ignore the +2 upgrade on 41cm, I just couldn't find another 41cm for Fuso.. << Shall be avoided in future exp't. - Assume slight damage does NOT affect DA or CI chance, for now. >>> Data shall be recorded only if test ships are in severe fatigue & above moderate damage (except Fuso). Fuso will always stay in a moderately damaged status. - Illustration on how data were collected. [ Exp't D ] - Completed in 1 Day (Total of 5h) - #Battles: 151 - Formation: LINE HEAD - Fleet total LOS = 347 (initial) -> 363 (final) ... ( +4.5% DA, +5.5% CI ) - NON-S RESULTS: 17 - BUCKETS USED: 32(1) - CV(L): Junyou Kai Ni lv 86 -> 91 - Wildcard: Amatsukaze lv 47->55 Findings from Exp't D (ASTRE) - Level differences will NOT affect DA rate. This is proved by comparing Yamashiro (Lv 40+) in Exp't D & Fuso (Lv 80+) in Exp't B. - Fuso was used to evaluate the fatigue penalty on DA chance, which gives a value of -8.3%. This is very close to our previous estimate of -9%. ''- Yamashiro's DA accuracy is 12.3% higher than Fuso's, even when she's 40 levels lower her sister ship. This very much owes to her higher equipment bonus ??'' - Prinz Eugen replaced her extraordinary FuMO AA radar with a "poor" #22 Surface radar. However, the CI trigger rate actually increased by 4.3% (after calibration on LoS difference), with almost the same CI accuracy. As a preliminary hypothesis, we may try to verify that Surface Radars give ~ 4% higher CI chance than AA Radars, and CI chance is NOT so dependent on the accuracy stat on radars ??' '' - '''After remodelling, Chikuma's DA rate slightly rose by +3.3%. Does it mean that CAV has higher base trigger rate than DA ?? - As total ship levels rose by 42, their total LoS rose by 16. From this obseravtion, we may deduct the formula: ''difference in Fleet.LoS SUM( difference in ship.Lv) * 0.4. '' This formula will be further evaluated in future experiments.